Empirical Analysis of Growth Slowdown in ASEAN

Robust economic growth across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies has lifted millions out of poverty and created a growing middle class. Nevertheless, further development is not guaranteed and concerns have been expressed about whether growth will be derailed and ASEAN economies will be caught in the middle-income trap. While there are potentials for future growth, there are also various domestic challenges and external headwinds for ASEAN members, especially the ongoing slowdown of the Chinese economy. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of growth slowdown for the ASEAN economies which are at different levels of development. We aim to answer two questions: First, are determinants of economic slowdown likely to differ across income groups? Second, what are the probabilities that economies in ASEAN will experience a growth slowdown in the near future? We construct a sample of 107 economies including ASEAN economies, Greater China economies, India and Indonesia sub-national economies. The sample spans the period 1993-2013.