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Modern analyses of China and India's rise are rooted in comparisons with Japan and East Asia's rises post World War II, but do these look to the wrong century for their precedents? For arguably the ascendance of Asia's two emerging giants has far greater parallels - economic, social, political and military - with bursting onto the global scene of Post Civil War America, Meiji Restoration Japan, and Bismarckian Germany.
The late 19th Century was characterised by historically unprecedented wealth creation, but also wild investment and commodity market booms, and regular financial crises. Moreover, the scramble for resources and the struggles of the old order to accommodate and manage the rises of the newly empowered and wealthy, engendered a frenzied colonial scramble which ultimately spilled over into global conflict.
So will countries and their leaders in the 21st Century be any better than their forefathers in managing such seismic shifts? Dr Simon Ogus, economic historian by training and market practitioner by day-job, will endeavour to provide some salient signposts. Simon is the founder and CEO of DSGAsia Limited, and independent consultancy, based in Hong Kong, which offers analysis of the economies and politics of Asia. He is generally recognised as one of the few analysts who accurately predicted both the Asian and the more recent global economic and financial crisis.
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Dr. Simon Ogus, Founder and CEO, DSG Asia Limited
- Thursday, 21 October 2010
- 5.15 p.m. - 6.30 p.m.
Seminar Room 3-5
Level 3, Manasseh Meyer
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
469C Bukit Timah Road