Global trade policy after the crisis: shift from West to East and a leadership vacuum |

Global trade policy after the crisis: shift from West to East and a leadership vacuum


This presentation assesses the effects of the global economic crisis on the world trading system, focusing on Asia. The crisis has induced sharp short-run divergence between the West and emerging markets, especially in Asia, which has in turn accelerated long-run convergence between East and West. This holds for international trade and investment. On the policy front, domestic “crisis interventions” have been much more prevalent than new trade protectionism. The nature of the financial crisis and subsequent crisis interventions leave a much worse medium-term policy outlook for the West than for emerging markets. “Traditional” trade protectionism has hardly increased, but new crisis-related “regulatory protectionism” is in the pipeline. That is a worry for both East and West. After surveying these trends, the presentation looks at trade policy in the major players: the USA, EU, China and India. It assesses the increasing role of major Asian players in regional and global trade governance, while the traditional leadership of the West is declining. It concludes that there is a leadership vacuum in the world trading system, at a time when the global environment is less benign and more uncertain than it was during the long pre-crisis globalisation boom.

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Razeen Sally, Director, European Centre for International Political Economy

Tuesday, 28 September 2010
12.15 p.m. - 1.30 p.m.

Seminar Room 3-5
Level 3, Manasseh Meyer
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
469C Bukit Timah Road
Singapore 259772

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