Public Lecture by Professor Wolfgang Lutz


Low fertility, human capital development and economic growth in an international context

Over the past decades, birth rates have not only been declining steeply in many industrialised countries but also in an increasing number of developing countries. Among East Asian populations (including Singapore) fertility has even declined to levels lower than in Europe.

In the lecture we will first discuss this global pattern of fertility decline, the reasons behind it and its likely future outlook. Thereafter, we will bring it into the context of new work on modelling human capital formation as described by the changing composition of populations by age and level of educational attainment. Finally, the findings will be linked to economic age-dependency and more generally, economic growth. This will allow us then to address some fundamental questions such as: What is the economically desirable level of fertility? Can better-educated young people through higher productivity compensate for a smaller workforce? What can be the role of international labour migration in this? These questions will be addressed in an international context but also with a specific view on Singapore.

Please click here for the programme.



Professor Wolfgang Lutz, NUSS Distinguished Professor, National University of Singapore

Professor Wolfgang Lutz is the Founding Director of the newly established Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, which is a collaboration between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and WU (Vienna University of Economics and Business). His research includes methods of demographic analysis, population projections, world population trends, comparative European demography, education and human capital as well as the future of fertility and reproduction. Professor Lutz is currently in Singapore as NUSS Distinguished Professor and is hosted by the Department of Sociology, National University of Singapore.




Media Reports:


Tuesday, 19 February 2013
9.00 am - 10.30 am

Auditorium, Level 1, RELC International Hotel